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High wind speeds lead renewables to hit all-time high at nearly 20% of electricity mix (UK)

July 1, 2014 in EIA, Environment, EV News, Wind

Courtesy of Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook

Courtesy of Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook

RenewableUK says new statistics published today (6-26-14) by the Department of Energy and Climate Change prove the case for wind power. The figures show that 19.4% of all the UK’s electricity mix in the first quarter of this year was generated from renewable energy sources, compared to 12.4% for the same period in the previous year. DECC says the primary reason for the increase was improved performance and greater capacity from onshore and offshore wind power.

Total renewable electricity generation was a record 18.1 terawatt hours in the first quarter of 2014, compared to 12.7 terawatt hours the previous year, an increase of 43%. This is enough to power 15.17 million homes for the quarter. Coal, gas and nuclear production all fell in the same period.

Onshore wind showed the highest absolute increase in generation, increasing by 62% to 6.6 terawatt hours, with offshore wind increasing by 53% to 4.4 terawatt hours. This made onshore wind the largest source of renewable electricity, with the technology providing 7.2% of all electricity across the UK. The combined total for onshore and offshore wind was nearly 12% of all electricity. The increase was partially due to increases in installed capacity, but also record high performance factors (load factors) of 40.4% for onshore wind and 54.3% for offshore wind. In addition, wave and tidal production increased 77%.

The paper also confirms previously released statistics for 2013, once again showing record performance for renewables across the year, led by onshore wind. However, the document does confirm that progress towards the overall energy target, including heat and transport, was below the interim target that the Government set out for 2013, highlighting the need to keep investing in renewable electricity – including onshore wind.

RenewableUK’s Director of External Affairs Jennifer Webber said: “Once again, wind delivered strongly for the UK in the first quarter of the year – when we need power most – providing nearly 12% of all our electricity. At a time when some politicians were finalising their plans to rule out any future support for onshore wind, it was quietly generating enough electricity for the equivalent of over 5 and a half million homes. Offshore wind also made a significant contribution to getting us off the hook of fossil fuels and reducing our dependence imported energy.

Onshore wind is delivering today, and it’s deeply illogical to talk about limiting its potential. Without the strong performance of wind last year, the Government would have been even further behind its energy targets. That’s why we need to ensure that there’s continued investment in both onshore and offshore wind moving forward.”

The statistics come the day after RenewableUK announced its 2015 General Election Manifesto which includes a pledge for onshore wind to be the cheapest form of new generation by 2020, with a lower price point than new gas, nuclear or other renewables – as long as the next Government is supportive. The Association announced the formation of a cost-cutting taskforce to highlight the initiatives needed to ensure this happens.

Commenting on this, Ms Webber said:

“We’ve shown this week that with the right policy support by 2020 the cheapest way to generate new electricity, to replace all the older power stations that are closing down, will be onshore wind. It’s time for all politicians to recognise the role that onshore wind is playing in our electricity provision and security of supply – and give it their support. Otherwise we’re signing up future consumers to a higher cost future, in hock to foreign powers for our electricity”.

Courtesy of EIA

Courtesy of EIA

This article is a repost (6-26-14), credit: RenewableUK.

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Renewable electricity generation projections sensitive to cost, price, policy assumptions

April 29, 2014 in EIA, Environment, EV News, Greentech

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014, Issues in Focus Note: GHG denotes greenhouse gases Republished April 29, 2014, text was added to clarify graph. Courtesy of EIA

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014, Issues in Focus
Note: GHG denotes greenhouse gases
Republished April 29, 2014, text was added to clarify graph.
Courtesy of EIA

Renewable electricity generation in the United States is projected to grow by 69% from 2012 to 2040 in the Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO2014) Reference case, including an increase of more than 140% in generation from nonhydropower renewable energy sources. While projected hydropower generation is almost completely insensitive to alternative assumptions related to cost, policy, and general economic conditions, the level of nonhydropower renewable electricity generation varies significantly with different assumptions.

The AEO2014 Reference case is based on current laws and policies (including the expiration of laws with scheduled expiration dates), and known technology and demographic trends. Nonhydropower renewable generation projections are highly sensitive to assumptions regarding policies that affect the attractiveness of renewable technologies (such as the production tax credit for certain renewable generation technologies), the costs and performance of the technologies, the costs of competing generation sources, and general macroeconomic conditions. In order to address such uncertainties, AEO2014 includes alternative cases that provide insight regarding the direction and magnitude of sensitivities in the projections to shifts in assumptions.

These side cases include:

  • An extension of policies such as the production and investment tax credits through the end of the projection period (No Sunset)
  • The application of a $25/metric ton fee on carbon dioxide emissions that increases 5% each year until the end of the projection period (GHG25)
  • Higher/lower growth in demand for electricity resulting from higher/lower economic growth rates (High/Low Macroeconomic Growth)
  • Lower renewable technology costs (Low Renewable Technology Cost)
  • Higher/lower natural gas prices resulting from lower/higher oil and gas resource assumptions (High/Low Oil and Gas Resource)

Changing these key assumptions can significantly affect projections for nonhydropower renewable electricity, particularly in the later years of the projection. For example, in the GHG25 case, total nonhydropower renewable generation in 2040 is 83% higher than in the Reference case, and in the High Oil and Gas Resource case, total nonhydropower renewable generation in 2040 is 12% lower than in the Reference case.

Although nonhydropower renewable generation more than doubles between 2012 and 2040 in the AEO2014 Reference case, its contribution to U.S. total electricity generation is still just 16%, well behind the natural gas and coal shares of 35% and 32%, respectively. In contrast, renewables account for 24% and 27%, respectively, of total electricity generation in 2040 in the No Sunset and GHG25 cases. In fact, renewable penetration of electricity supply in both cases meets or surpasses 16% by 2020, which is the level attained in the Reference case by 2040. Some additional results include the following:

  • The responsiveness of EIA’s nonhydropower renewable electricity projections to these particular uncertainties is not necessarily symmetric. Changing these key assumptions can lead to significantly higher levels of renewable electricity generation, but generally do not result in renewable generation levels significantly below Reference case projections.
  • Changing key assumptions generally affects long-term nonhydropower renewable electricity projections to a much greater degree than near-term projections.
  • Individual renewable technologies are not proportionately affected by changes in key assumptions. Solar and wind generators are generally more responsive to assumption changes than biomass, waste, or geothermal generators.

Additional analysis can be found in the AEO2014 Issues in Focus discussion of variations in nonhydropower renewable electricity projections.

This Issues in Focus article is intended to emphasize that there is a great deal of uncertainty related to factors such as policy, project costs, and natural gas prices—and that a shift in any of these factors could significantly change EIA’s renewable projections, generally in the positive direction. However, even in the AEO2014 Reference case, EIA projects that more than 15 gigawatts (GW) of new wind capacity would be able to take advantage of the extension of the production tax credit, which is available to projects starting construction or in significant development before January 1, 2014. In comparison, recent reports from the American Wind Energy Association indicate that as much as 12 GW of wind projects met that deadline and are currently in the construction pipeline.

Principal contributor: Gwendolyn Bredehoeft

This article is a repost, credit: EIA.